EXCELSIOR SPRINGS – The Census Bureau showed a sharp population decline for Excelsior Springs, which city officials disputed in August and are appealing.

Based on the bureau’s count, the number of people living in the city dropped from 11,081 in 2010 to 10,553 after the 2020 count. If accurate, then the city lost 531 people while new houses went up. More incredibly, if the numbers hold, then most of the population nosedive occurred during a one-year period, plummeting from a 2019 projection of 11,731 – a decline of 1,178 people, or 10.6%, just one year later.

When first reported, the numbers led Excelsior Springs Economic Development Director Melinda Mehaffy to wonder whether some residents had failed to complete the forms.

“My reason for thinking so is because, since 2016, we have added 111 new home builds in our community; and I know we haven’t demolished that many homes, nor have we seen that many homes sitting vacant,” Mehaffy said in August.

City Manager Molly McGovern last week said the numbers need another look.

“We will be doing that,” she said. “We had two census tracts (in 2010), and apparently in the new census, we now have three census tracts. When we look at the counts on the east side of town, it’s essentially the same as the last time; and when we looked at the count on the west side of town, it dropped by, say, 300 people from the last census.”

Construction numbers contradict the bureau’s finding of a west side population drop, McGovern said.

“All the new construction is occurring on the west side. That (population drop is) just not even feasible,” she said. “I could see group populations are where they focus the most attention, and that’s where all the apartment complexes are, so there could have been some missed addressing. …

“Our focus will be on what housing was missed, if any.”

The Count Question Resolution Operation, or CQR, is available to communities across the nation.

“Through this formal review process, the Census Bureau ensures that housing and population counts are correctly allocated to 2020 Census tabulation blocks in the 50 states,” bureau information stated. “The Census Bureau has been conducting the CQR Operation since the 1990 Census.”

There has been no mention of the city having to pay for the review, McGovern said.

The city will start the process by submitting a housing count to the bureau to identify potential missed addresses.

The bureau will accept CQR cases from cities through Sept. 30, 2023.

“The Census Bureau aims to respond within 90 days of receipt of case submissions,” bureau information stated.

The review will be targeted, McGovern said.

“It’s focused on the housing inventory for specific census blocks, not the overall population count. However, if the Census Bureau makes corrections, it will issue a new official count,” McGovern said.

In some cases, a population decline can result in a revenue decline – from fuel tax, for example – for local governments.

Losing population also can make some communities less attractive to developers, who determine where to locate based on the number of residents.